Chapter 185 - Name and Reality 108 {136 Solo} (326-327 Oshima's Last Will 2)
"That sort of thing is a mostly meaningless debate now that the fiscal investment and loan program for postal savings was abolished last year (2001). The postal business is an indispensable infrastructure for the entire nation, provided even in the Japanese countryside where it's hard to make any profit, and profit was never the goal to begin with! Takamatsu's so-called life's work of postal privatization is nothing more than self-satisfaction!"
Oshima immediately dismissed it.
"However, since other transportation industries are also deployed all over the country, doesn't that excuse not hold up? Besides, even with postal privatization, they're supposed to maintain uniform service nationwide, right?"
Nishida brought up the logic being conveyed in the media.
"Ridiculous. The set rates are different. It's a natural state-run business to provide services indispensable to the citizens at a low price, and there's no need to even assume profit in the first place! Furthermore, regarding the maintenance of uniform service, if you think about the future outlook of the postal business, I'm afraid it won't be that easy. The major event of New Year's cards and the business of letters will, while I won't say all, likely be mostly wiped out by things like email eventually. Setting aside postal savings and such, for the post office, significant price hikes or withdrawal from some rural areas are fully conceivable in the future. That's how rapid the progress of depopulation in rural areas is."
Oshima denied every point.
"But I saw a newspaper article saying that those unfairly low prices hinder legitimate competition and pressure private businesses? I heard they've been faking it until now by bringing in profits from things like postal savings?"
Nishida still pressed him.
"One must first realize that the premise of simply accepting the idea that it's good to pressure private businesses, without reaching the thought that entrusting services related to the foundation of the citizens' lives at high prices is itself already a problem, is wrong! Not every act in the world is performed on the premise of profit. Beyond that, how to cultivate new businesses and new industries that don't emerge from civil-servant-like thinking should be handled separately and appropriately. Simply confusing administrative services that the state or local governments should provide at a minimum for the lives of the citizens with profit-oriented private businesses, and judging solely on the plane of which is more efficiently profitable, is truly the height of folly! To begin with, if you pursue that logic, no government other than a night-watchman state would be necessary! Eventually, as in America, if you arm yourself, in the extreme, you might not even need the police or the military. That is exactly the ultimate form of self-responsibility, a fusion of libertarianism and anarchism."
Oshima fumed, clenching his fists tightly. But perhaps reflecting that his assertion was too strong, he continued in a lower tone.
"I say it again and again: it's true that because civil servants are involved, there's waste and unnecessary regulations are intertwined. Those should be reviewed. However, one must never mistake the essence of the matter. The state should ultimately take responsibility for the distribution of indispensable benefits that the citizens should widely enjoy. And Takamatsu, it seems, doesn't see that distinction."
"Even if you say that, the citizens who are dissatisfied with the current situation won't be convinced by that."
Yoshimura was still dissatisfied.
"Actually, that is what I fear most."
Oshima sighed and fell silent for a while. But he opened his heavy mouth as if pulling himself together.
"Right now, from my perspective, what feels greatly out of place in public opinion is that whether the citizens can be convinced and whether it is essentially correct are being discussed on the same plane. Of course, there are many cases where being able to be convinced directly links to being correct. And in the divergence between public opinion and actual politics, the fact is that a certain kind of deception has also been carried out by the political and administrative sides, justifying actual politics by questioning public opinion. However, without a doubt, the two are not exactly the same. Right now, especially, neither the citizens nor the politicians understand that this is the biggest problem. Of course, as long as it's a democracy, the understanding and consent of the citizens are necessary, but if that is misused, it's considered correct for politicians to deceive the citizens and conduct strange politics, and conversely, even if the citizens run wild, no one will be able to stop them. That is not the essence of democracy."
"I can't say I don't understand that at my level. Recent politics and so-called public will are pushed by momentum and might be somewhat lacking in deliberation."
Nishida had to agree with that.
"The citizens have likely been harboring pent-up frustrations since that bubble burst. While the Japanese economy, which was once even called 'Japan as Number One' and was supposed to be first-rate, gradually declined with the bubble's collapse, the Great Hanshin Earthquake was followed by a financial crisis, students struggled with job hunting, and the citizens were forced into anxious lives with no growth in income. That is a fact."
Nishida and Yoshimura also listened to Oshima's statement while reflecting on the social conditions.
"You two likely know deep down that the responsibility for this lies heavily with us as politicians and with the administration, and I, of course, understand that as well. During this time, we raised taxes, and when the economy worsened, we turned around and expanded spending, conducting policies that lacked consistency. Naturally, expanding spending during a recession isn't wrong in its broad framework. However, the fact that it was too ad-hoc cannot be denied. Regarding finance as well, we wavered back and forth on whether to put in public funds or not, and as a result, made things worse. Consequently, the sense of stagnation increased further. There, Takamatsu appeared, claiming to execute destructive reforms, and the citizens sought salvation in him without even checking the contents, and to put it grandly, they are even enthusiastic. Even wide shows, which aren't news programs, deal with politics, and those who oppose him are treated as if they were 'rebel forces.' For a man like Takamatsu who has no backing, making public will and the media his allies is his greatest defense."
His tone at this time was calm, but the expression as if he had chewed on a bitter bug likely represented Oshima's inner thoughts vividly.
"Do you still dislike Prime Minister Takamatsu?"
Yoshimura asked following this statement. To this, Oshima replied.
"What I dislike is Takamatsu's method as Prime Minister. As a single politician, I don't dislike Takamatsu that much personally. He's a third-generation politician, but he's a man who doesn't like to herd, and in this industry where people get along with 'outward obedience and inward rebellion' for the sake of power, I can't say there's nothing noteworthy about him. However, executing the principles and assertions of a single individual directly as the politics of the state can sometimes become a problem and even an act of violence. I believe that is now. Well, that's not all..."
He answered more dispassionately than Nishida and the others had expected.
But he immediately changed his expression.
"You two likely know that in the early Showa era when I lived, Japan was also beset by an even worse sense of stagnation. If you think about what happened there, you'll understand the danger of that enthusiasm. The May 15 Incident, where the then-Prime Minister Inukai Tsuyoshi was assassinated, is exactly the typical example. Because of the citizens who were driven mad with anger at the corruption of politics and the business world, a total of over one million signatures for a petition for clemency were collected for the assassination members, who were young Navy officers and civilians. Considering that Japan's population at the time was around 65 million, in reality, it means that today, two million people would have signed a petition for clemency for terrorists, not 'patriots'! Nishida-kun, Yoshimura-kun. Can you imagine that today?"
Suddenly asked this, the two immediately shook their heads. Seeing that, he continued.
"I thought so. Especially since you are police officers in charge of public order, it should be even more so. However, at the time, there was exactly a consciousness of 'divine punishment,' and the citizens cheered for it. And it is said—and I also understand it this way—that the 'divine punishment' ideology and the citizens' wicked tolerance caused the February 26 Incident four years later, which could be called a complete attempted coup d'état."
※※※※※※※ Author's Note
Originally, in this novel, links or simple summaries are presented so that you can read without having to look up the historical background in the text one by one, but regarding the May 15 Incident and the February 26 Incident, there are parts that cannot be briefly explained here, and it is very troublesome in terms of labor, so for those who do not know well, please refer to the link for the general flow only. Well, there are parts I can't quite agree with, but it'll be enough to grasp the flow. Or, while you can't trust everything there either, Wikipedia, which I often post here, might also be good.
http://bushoojapan.com/tomorrow/2014/02/25/15140
If possible, it might be better to read Hando Kazutoshi's "Showa-shi" or Hata Ikuhiko's "Gun Fascism Undou-shi," but I haven't read everything either, and there are subtle differences in the principles and assertions they are based on, so for those interested, I think you should look into various things.
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"As a result of those, the military gained power, and Japan rushed into war, right?"
Yoshimura asked for confirmation, as if getting ahead of the answer.
"Umu. Exactly that flow. Anger toward politics and the business world weakened political power, and as a result, the military's power increased. But that's not all. The citizens themselves backed Japan's expansion of control over the continent and Southeast Asia as public opinion and showed enthusiastic approval for the withdrawal from the League of Nations. It was a vicious cycle where the citizens liked the bellicose tone of the media, and the media responded by pouring out a bellicose tone, which created an even more bellicose public opinion. Of course, in the early stages, before the later military pressure on the media, there were fellows like the Reservist Association (Author's Note: See Shinano Mainichi Boycott, Kiryu Yuuyu https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%A1%90%E7%94%9F%E6%82%A0%E3%80%85) who applied pressure on the media critical of the expansion of the front. The military was made to obtain a voice not only from themselves but also from the citizens thereafter. Even so, most of them... or rather, almost all of them back then likely never imagined that the end of that thoughtless enthusiasm would invite the greatest crisis of the Japanese nation in history, where 70% to nearly 90% of the national budget was occupied by military spending, and not only many victims abroad but also three million compatriots alone were sacrificed. Even Kin-chan, who was convinced of the defeat and the expansion of sacrifices, whether he completely predicted that tragic end... If that much budget had been abundantly circulated to things other than the military, there was certainly a danger of losing Manchuria, but I think there might have been a different path. Sometimes, even things believed to be justice or patriotism can rather invite ruin. That is the fear of politics, the fear of democracy."
As expected of Oshima, who saw the turbulent times with his own eyes and "experienced" them himself, the weight of each word was transmitted poignantly to the listening detectives.
"However, I don't think such a grave mistake is included in Takamatsu's reform plan for thorough restructuring. The pre-war flow had, so to speak, patriotic or militaristic elements strongly in the background..."
Nishida modestly countered here.
"It's true that the straightforwardly dangerous enthusiasm that tolerates fascism and the current enthusiasm for Takamatsu's reforms might seem different at first glance to you who live in peaceful modern times. It's unavoidable. However, while Takamatsu's thorough restructuring tries to destroy all conventional vested interests, I fear it contains two hidden major destructions, and with other elements added to them, it might create a great crisis in the future."
Oshima held up two fingers like a V-sign.
"What are those two destructions?"
When Yoshimura asked the natural question given the circumstances, Oshima spoke.
"One is that after crushing small vested interests, the nasty thing is that they will be concentrated into even larger vested interests, making the lives of many citizens even poorer. The second is to destroy the national security of the citizens' lives that we built after the war."
"Please be specific about that."
Nishida also asked for further explanation, but he spoke while feeling a little frustrated that he had been "led on," thinking that Oshima was likely using this way of speaking after calculating that things would flow this way, including Yoshimura's earlier remark.
"Then, from the first one. For this explanation, it has no direct relationship with the specific theory of Takamatsu's thorough restructuring at this point... strictly at this point... but since it's an easy example to understand as a way of thinking, I'll use it. Especially recently in public works projects, I think you two know well that more thorough fair competitive bidding is being conducted than before. Until now, public works projects have often been talked about as a hotbed for unfair competition—that is, bid-rigging. There was also so-called government-manufactured bid-rigging involving the administrative side, and securing places for retired officials to land (amakudari) using that has also become a problem. I wasn't unrelated to those either, and I don't think they were purely correct methods. It's a fact that various vested interests existed there. However, the fact is that almost no general news deals with the thorough verification of what exactly the thoroughness of competition, which was supposed to break those dirty interests, invited afterward."
After speaking that much all at once, Oshima reached for the bottled tea. Nishida and Yoshimura just waited in silence for the story to begin. Oshima took a slow drink of tea and quietly placed the bottle on the desk.
"Sorry to keep you waiting... When you get to this age, your mouth just gets dry... Now, to continue the story, as a result of that fair bidding, price competition was greatly conducted, and certainly, cost reduction of public works projects was achieved. Up to this point, it must have been a great success. However, that outward fairness invited another problem. Until now, through bid-rigging, it was possible for local small and medium-sized general contractors and such to win bids, but due to the thoroughness of price competition, large general contractors from Tokyo and such intervened and started winning bids at frighteningly low prices. So-called dumping. Moreover, because they sub-contract the whole thing to local general contractors and construction companies after skimming off the profit, some of those who were given the work ended up breaking even as a business, or in bad cases, even becoming red-ink enterprises. That said, given their relationship with the large general contractors, they can't easily refuse. As a result, some construction companies have started lowering the quality of the work in ways that aren't obvious, lowering wages and salaries for workers, or have become unable to sustain themselves as businesses. Meanwhile, the large general contractors in urban areas grow fat just by sub-contracting the whole thing. If you think about the purpose of public works projects, if rural areas are exhausted and work that isn't necessarily perfect is being done, isn't that exactly putting the cart before the horse! (Author's Note: See below) A competition myth has preceded, where as long as competition occurs, an appropriate result will be born there, and the problem of excessive competition is being ignored. Because small vested interests were hit, instead of further dispersion of interests, interests are rather being concentrated into a very small part. This means that if you think about the maximum ripple effect on the national economy, which is the distribution of profit, it's actually producing a regressive effect. And the privatization of state and local government businesses through Takamatsu's policies will, in fact, in most cases, ultimately be dominated by a very small number of companies and organizations, and under the name of efficiency, profits will be concentrated in specific areas. Also, there will be cases where private workers of privatized organizations cannot obtain the same treatment as the original civil servants. It's fine to evaluate that in one word as efficiency, but the profit generated by that will be absorbed by the very small number of companies and capitalists more than by the side enjoying the service, and furthermore, it will become harder for profits to be returned to employees and society. Because the distribution that has the most impact on the economy and business conditions is the return to general workers through salaries and wages. Conversely, the criticism toward the maintenance of unprofitable or inefficient businesses because some elite civil servants get high salaries without doing proper work through amakudari originates from the fact that there was profit distribution only to those specific very small number of people, and one must realize that both are actually not much different in structure. The destruction of vested interests can create even more distorted interest structures."
Oshima rattled this off all at once and took another sip of tea.
"I see. I generally understand what you want to say. However, in recent years, looking at the flow from the state to the private sector—from JNR to JR, from NTT to NTT, and from the Monopoly Bureau to JT—I think it's generally succeeding, don't you?"
Yoshimura countered based on past examples.
"Certainly, setting aside JR, JT and NTT can be said to be almost certainly successful examples of privatization. JT is finding a way out through diversification, expanding into beverage and food businesses other than tobacco, despite the headwind of the anti-smoking trend. In NTT, through the introduction of efficiency and competition principles like the entry of other companies, telephone rates have dropped significantly, especially for long-distance calls. There is the fact that the citizens, who are the recipients of the service, also gained profit without reducing employment or salaries. That might be called a great achievement of privatization."
Oshima said this much and cleared his throat once, but started speaking again without pause.
"However, to begin with, the Monopoly Bureau was an organization originally intended for profit, such as securing profit through the state monopoly of salt (Author's Note: History of Salt Monopoly https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%A1%A9%E6%94%BF%E5%8F%B2) dating back to ancient China, rather than for the benefit of the citizens' lives or the stable supply of salt, and the same went for the tobacco monopoly, so it could be said it was natural to privatize it. On the other hand, in the case of the Telegraph and Telephone Public Corporation, it's also a fact that even at the time of privatization to NTT, a decline in service in depopulated areas was certainly worried about due to the relationship with maintaining facilities in rural areas. However, because new technologies and demands like the mobile phone business and recently things like the internet generated profits more than enough to maintain those, the service is still properly maintained all over Japan. On the other hand, I do not recognize that the post office stands in the same kind of situation or future potential. If it's a privatization where it can function sufficiently as a company even after privatization and the entire nation can gain profit, it could be called a successful example, but cases where that's not the case will emerge for each industry, and the perspective of what will happen in the future, not just now, is important. After all, if you look at the current state of the Japanese economy, which is gradually declining—with the aging of the population progressing, rural areas being exhausted, and other countries that were developing until now catching up—you cannot ignore that perspective."
Oshima laid out his own theory while carefully interweaving explanations for his counter-evidence to Yoshimura. And then he added.
"But the real problem is JR. I believe there was no privatization as much as JNR that ignored the long-term maintenance of public services for the citizens and was toyed with by political intentions."
※※※※※※※ Author's Note: Postscript
Since the Great East Japan Earthquake, the expansion of profits for so-called general contractors and even small and medium-sized construction companies has continued at the highest level in history, but this is because the selection of construction companies due to the reduction of public works projects in the early 2000s and the accompanying decline in the inflow of human resources into the construction industry suddenly turned into a bubble with the subsequent earthquake and Olympic demand. Please understand that the historical background related to public works projects and the construction industry is different.
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