Chapter 188 - Name and Reality 111 {139 Alone} (331–332 Oshima Kaiji's Last Will 5 - The Deterioration of Politicians: History and Experience)
"This can be said especially of opposition legislators, but most of the Minyu Party legislators, including myself, are people from lineages who became Diet members for the first time after the war. Among them were some from certain prestigious families whose fathers or grandfathers had been Diet members since before the war, like Takamatsu, but they didn't stand out much in terms of numbers. Of course, while many were from families that were somewhat well-off even before the war, I would have partially fallen into that category if not for the tsunami, and the confusion during and after the war caused major economic blows to most of the wealthy through hyperinflation and bank account freezes. And those legislators who rose to prominence after the war, in particular, undoubtedly made a certain amount of effort in their studies and election campaigns to become Diet members. Even Takamatsu, a third-generation legislator, entered Keiyo University from a public high school after a gap year, and he also lost in the 'condolence election' (T/N: an election held shortly after a predecessor's death) immediately after his father died. In that sense, he too must have certainly experienced a certain amount of hardship."
Oshima seemed to be getting into his stride; for an old man, his speaking was smooth, but his speed was increasing further.
"However! In the last ten years, the composition of legislators within the Minyu Party has also changed rapidly. The type who built their career in one generation has decreased, and second- and third-generation legislators have increased. Among them, even from my eyes, 'Aho-bon' (T/N: 'idiot sons' of wealthy/powerful families) legislators have started to appear here and there—people of such a level that they wouldn't even be able to function in general society if they hadn't inherited their base and name. Moreover, the bad thing is that in many cases, the fathers of such legislators were politicians with a certain amount of power during their active years. That's why, despite having no ability, they have a big attitude and have inherited a certain amount of political influence. The fathers were respectable, but because they were busy with legislative activities, they often failed in child-rearing by being too neglectful or overindulgent with their own sons; that might be the factor that produced such idiot-son legislators... Because they have money, status, and influence, even an idiot can be sent through the 'escalator' from kindergarten or elementary school to a private university. Of course, even an idiot who can't make the grade wouldn't get into a prestigious national university... Naturally, what must be noted is that academic background and ability are not the only values of a human being. However, a big shot who can say, 'To hell with academic background, I'll rise up in a different way,' would never enter a university without even taking an exam through their parent's connections. They grow up in luxury residential areas in Tokyo that have nothing to do with their father's constituency without experiencing a single hardship until they become adults, and then they return to their hometown only at election time and bow their heads, saying, 'I will work for the sake of the hometown.' This is despite the fact that internally they look down on the countryside! It's not for me to say, but national politics doesn't exist only to bring benefits to the regions. However, if one brings vested interests only for the sake of votes while saying things that sound like they understand without properly looking at the actual situation of the regions, it goes without saying that they are far more harmful than a mere 'Vested Interest' politician."
Indeed, even to the two listening, the names of politicians who might fit that description flickered in their minds.
"On the other hand, the opposition might still have few such legislators, but because their lineage is often weak, they lack a base and funds and are inevitably swayed by the 'wind' (T/N: public mood). For that reason, they tend to waver depending on the political or overseas situation at the time, so their stance is not fixed. It's also a flaw that they tend to choose people based on name recognition. In addition, it's hard for them to even become candidates in single-seat constituencies. To make matters worse, if they clash with other opposition parties, they end up eating each other's votes. This side is also in a state of stalemate."
"But aren't there quite a few excellent young legislators who were formerly bureaucrats in both the ruling and opposition parties?"
When Yoshimura asked,
"You could say that, but didn't I just point out the problems with bureaucrats these days? Such legislators are rather prone to showing those characteristics and tendencies. Especially the type that comes to the ruling party," he was dismissed.
"Ah, I see. That's true."
Yoshimura had been on the side conducting the interrogation until now, but he was feeling a bit dejected after being easily refuted.
"In any case, the more they are 'Aho-bon' types, the more they mistakenly believe they are special beings from the moment they are born, and think it's natural that they are a privileged class. What they have is not a political consciousness for the sake of the general public, but only a cheap pride for behaving as people in power. You could say they treat the citizens as pawns as a matter of course. And if politics where politicians with considerable influence but zero ability and broken personalities hold hands with bureaucrats with a high 'Chosen People' consciousness is linked with the so-called reform that Takamatsu asserts, you two should be able to fully understand what kind of conclusion it will produce in the end. If businesspeople who only care about money are added to that, it becomes the truly worst pattern."
When he said that definitively, Oshima's eyes seemed somewhat bloodshot.
"Is it possible for those two sides to hold hands?"
When Yoshimura asked,
"Bureaucrats have ability but no base or name. Even if 'Aho-bon' legislators are more incompetent than them, they have the strength of possessing those things. If both sides try to compensate for what they lack, it's quite possible they will collude. Even if internally the bureaucrats look down on such politicians," Oshima answered with what seemed like conviction.
"Somehow, it seems similar to the composition of pre-war Japan that you were talking about earlier, Onodera-san..."
Oshima nodded at Nishida's words, which he spoke after supplementing them with his own other historical knowledge.
"Your thinking is on the right track. If politics that prioritizes the privileged class is conducted, it might be okay when the economy is good, but once it becomes bad, the economy of the general public will rapidly exhaust and collapse. No, even if the economy were good, a system is in place where the fruits of that rarely pass to the citizens. That became particularly manifest during the Showa Depression and thereafter, as I mentioned earlier. And that situation pushed the citizens toward war. Now, the problem is what will happen this time."
He spoke.
"When it comes to that... there's a famous quote like 'Fools learn from experience, wise men learn from history,' but if we are to learn from history, is there a possibility that Japan will be caught up in or even cause a war itself in the future!?"
Yoshimura asked Oshima again in a tone that clearly showed he thought it sounded suspicious. Then,
"Because the environment surrounding Japan and Japan itself are different from back then, even I don't think it will lead to war immediately. Given the constitutional restrictions, public will, and the current situation, it's hard to imagine Japan taking the lead in causing a war. Of course, I don't think that's an absolutely correct perception either. In the past, many citizens at the time didn't anticipate it would become such a terrible disaster..."
Oshima lowered his eyes slightly, but continued as if pulling himself together.
"And above all, the current world economic system is not the same as the 'bloc' system of that time. However, I realized a few years after the war that the reason pre-war Japan ended up as a scorched earth in that way could be reinterpreted as having already 'lost the war' in a different sense before the war even began. If that's the case, another kind of scorched earth could very well be reproduced in today's Japan with a certain probability."
At this point, he used a rather difficult way of phrasing it.
"To be honest, that's an expression I don't quite understand..."
Nishida tilted his head. To this, Oshima said,
"Regarding that, I suppose I must speak a bit more in detail, not just what I've explained to you so far..."
He drank his tea again, straightened his back, and began to explain.
"The boom during and immediately after the First World War conversely generated extreme inflation, and despite the overall economy being good, many people found life difficult. Not to mention the post-war recession that followed, as I said earlier, life for the commoners became even more difficult especially after the Showa Depression occurred, and as a result of that resentment being directed at the people in the political and business world who were corrupt at the time, the May 15 Incident and the February 26 Incident occurred. However, you should roughly know that the citizens rather praised that, and as a result, it strengthened militarism. It's exactly a vicious cycle where only the momentum of 'changing something greatly' took on a life of its own and swelled up, and by rushing forward without examining the content, it gave power to the military, and that military controlled the state itself, which in turn caught the citizens up in a reckless war. At that point, Japan had already fallen into a state of defeat in both intelligence and national strategy. That is the kind of thing I am saying. Before losing the war, Japan had undoubtedly lost in its fundamental parts as a society and a state."
Hearing that, Nishida said,
"I see. In that sense, it could be said that losing the war was inevitable. That's right."
He honestly offered words of reflection on his lack of understanding.
"Then, what is the 'other scorched earth of Japan' that will be reproduced in modern times? Listening to your talk so far, Onodera-san, if things continue as they are, to put it in extreme terms, is it that Japan will become a society of a few rich people and a vast majority of poor people? And as an ironic conclusion that progresses in a form that the citizens unintentionally desired?"
Yoshimura asked tentatively. However, Oshima said,
"Exactly, that is what I fear might happen," nodding many times as if he felt he had been understood.
"However, it might actually be better to have a scorched earth where everything is truly gone than such a scorched earth. Just as there is new budding after a forest fire, using the ash as fertilizer."
"Wait a minute? Is a scorched earth as literally burnt ground really better!?"
Nishida naturally couldn't accept it and spoke his doubt before Oshima had finished.
"Yes, that's right."
Oshima replied with a definitive tone that could be taken as full of confidence.
"What do you two think of Africa?"
Since he suddenly started talking about Africa this time, both of them were left with their mouths agape, saying, "Huh?"
"Even after Africa became independent from European suzerain states, as symbolized recently by the civil war in Rwanda and famine, much of it is still in turmoil. Do you think the cause lies with them?"
"Well... desertification is affected by climate as well as deforestation, and resources are relatively abundant, so does it come down to things like the level of education...?"
To Nishida's noncommittal statement in response to the question,
"One certainly can't say that those parts are entirely absent," he said. On top of that,
"However, the essence of the problem seems to me to be symbolized in the Rwandan Civil War."
He added.
"The Rwandan Civil War... I believe the cause was tribal conflict within the country?"
"As Yoshimura-kun says, was it the conflict between the Tutsi and Hutu tribes...? The suzerain state, Belgium, in order to manage the colony well, thoroughly prioritized the Tutsi tribe, created a conflict relationship with the Hutu tribe, and utilized them so that both sides would not cooperate. In the first place, it is also said that the Tutsi and Hutu were not originally existences that were completely divided into two (Author's Note 1: Below). This kind of conflict structure was practiced in other African colonies as well and seems to still be leaving a trail even after independence. Furthermore, the border lines themselves were drawn for the convenience of the suzerain states. Completely ignoring culture and tribal relationships. You two would well understand if you've studied world geography or world history even a little that the same composition can be seen not only in Africa but also in many Arab countries."
[Author's Note Summary]
○ Author's Note 1
Including this, there are quite complicated historical and modern backgrounds regarding the Rwandan Civil War, so please refer to the overview at https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%83%AB%E3%83%AF%E3%83%B3%E3%83%80%E8%99%90%E6%AE%BA. Since it's Wikipedia, the credibility is so-so, but it still has a considerable amount of information.
Also, the drifting of the Rohingya people (there is a theory that they are not an ethnic group, and they are still a mysterious existence, but it is certain they are Muslims), who are said to be persecuted in Myanmar recently, has become an international issue even under Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate and pro-democracy leader.
There is a theory that it is not just a religious conflict between Buddhists and Muslims, but that when Japan and Britain skirmished over the colony during the old Burma era, both sides utilized the Buddhist side and the Muslim side, which is still leaving a trail. Like Africa and the Arab world, this might be said to be an example in Asia where the divide-and-rule policy for colonial governance is still leaving a trail.