Chapter 438 - Episode 421: The Gamble
Early June.
In both the Archduchy of Arqvist and the Kingdom of Roadberg, the epidemic of Herzgenheim disease had yet to subside.
On the Kingdom of Roadberg side, particularly in the northwestern region, there were noble territories experiencing gruesome explosions of infection; compared to those, the Archduchy of Arqvist was in a relatively better situation. They had been able to prevent extreme explosions of infection and were barely managing to control the epidemic.
However, that was only because they had unsparingly released the nation's emergency reserves and were forcing grueling work upon the subjects and soldiers who were the human resources serving the state, as well as the doctors and clergy serving society.
With a state of high alert maintained for two months since the outbreak, and the current situation where infected persons were appearing here and there even among the subjects and soldiers, leading to a growing labor shortage, the nation itself was becoming exhausted. The society of the Archduchy of Arqvist, being a small nation, was already close to its limit.
Just as they were holding on by a thread and enduring to maintain social peace, a great crack began to form beneath their feet. It was about to begin from the medical frontlines, the vanguard confronting Herzgenheim disease.
"...The stockpile of magic medicine has fallen below half."
The reception room of the Archducal residence. Speaking through a pane of glass with his nose and mouth covered by a cloth was the elderly physician Selfers, the director of the Archducal Noeina Clinic.
The "magic medicine" he referred to was the most standard among the various types and qualities of magic medicines. It was effective against both fevers and injuries, and in the case of Herzgenheim disease, it was one of the few medicines capable of alleviating symptoms.
The Archducal House of Arqvist had stockpiled enough of this at the clinic for two hundred people to use for two weeks. Even with this amount, they felt uneasy, so they provided it only to those among the infected whose symptoms were particularly severe and who were most likely to lose their lives first.
"I see... If half has been used in two months, then the remainder..."
"We will be lucky if it lasts two weeks. The number of new infections remains high. Along with that, the number of severe cases is increasing. If we continue to use it based on the current criteria, it is inevitable that the stockpile will be depleted faster than before."
Selfers explained the harsh reality in a calm tone.
"...That is, true."
Noein held their head in their hands.
By taking these measures, the Archduchy of Arqvist had managed to keep the number of infected persons lower compared to the Kingdom of Roadberg side. However, that was only a matter of "compared to the Kingdom of Roadberg side."
The subjects were barely maintaining their composure, but the economy had stagnated, it was unknown how long food supplies could remain stable, and above all, a sense of stagnation was spreading through society. It was precisely because of their love and respect for Noein that the subjects were listening to what Noein said, but they were human too. The order that was somehow being firmly defended would likely unravel if the current situation continued for several more months.
They had reached a dead end. It was a complete impasse.
Seeing Noein sigh with an expression of extreme melancholy, Selfers spoke.
"There is one new move we can make. It would be a kind of gamble, but it might be possible to significantly accelerate the end of the infection."
Hearing this, Noein looked up and looked at Selfers. His expression was by no means bright, and furthermore, he had called it "a kind of gamble." Noein understood that the "move" he spoke of was certainly not one consisting only of advantages.
"Could you let me hear it?"
Even so, there was no choice other than to consider it. Noein spoke with a tightened expression.
"Understood... Currently, there are approximately eighty infected persons manifesting Herzgenheim disease within the Archduchy of Arqvist. Of those, about thirty with severe symptoms are hospitalized at the Archducal Noeina Clinic. Is this clear so far?"
"Yes, I am aware."
Noein nodded.
The maximum capacity assumed for the Archducal Noeina Clinic was thirty people. Currently, the clinic was caring for the maximum number of infected persons.
"If I can obtain Your Excellency's permission, I will admit all the remaining persons, including those with relatively better symptoms, into the clinic. From then on, any newly infected person, regardless of the severity of their symptoms, will be admitted to the clinic without exception."
"...Would that not place too heavy a burden on you doctors? The risk of infection will also increase," Noein asked.
The doctors working at the Archducal Noeina Clinic numbered six in total, including Selfers and his disciples. There were an equal number of people working as nurses. However, two doctors and three nurses had become infected with Herzgenheim disease and were currently away from duty.
Bishop Hasel and other clergy members were also cooperating in dealing with the infected, but they were touring settlements outside the capital city of Noeina. They could not be relied upon much as combat power for the clinic.
In such a situation, if eighty infected persons were crammed into the clinic and future infected persons were also admitted, the clinic's environment would become terribly wretched. If placed in such an environment, it would not be strange if all the doctors, who were precious human resources, became infected.
"Your Excellency's concern is perfectly reasonable. Therefore, we will take the form of having those among the infected who have mild symptoms and can somehow move on their own take care of the severe cases. And the doctors other than myself who are not yet infected—Liris and the others—will be forbidden from entering and leaving the clinic. I will have them perform work outside the clinic, such as calling for the thorough implementation of infection measures among the people and arranging the transport of newly infected persons."
"!"
Noein was speechless. It was a move to isolate and lock up the infected in order to protect the vast majority of subjects and the precious doctors, leaving whether they lived or died to their respective life forces.
Since there were noble territories in the Kingdom of Roadberg where the infected were being exterminated, this was still far better, but it did not change the fact that it was a move to "discard the few for the sake of the many."
"Of course, no matter how much it is to help the greatest number of people, Your Excellency would not permit a means that abandons the infected. Therefore, as a relief measure, I will give magic medicine to all the infected admitted to the clinic. The survival rate for everyone will increase, and the number of those who recover to a mild state where they can move will increase... it will also be possible to suppress the dissatisfaction of the forcibly admitted infected and their families."
"..."
Perhaps sensing Noein's values, which held being loved by the people as the supreme goal, Selfers said this.
If they simply isolated and admitted all the infected, it would be seen as discarding them, but if they gave magic medicine to everyone, it could be explained as "switching the treatment of non-severe infected persons from home recovery to intensive recovery at the clinic." Some might perceive the true intention, but overall, it would be possible to suppress the backlash of public opinion.
"If we admit the infected to the clinic without exception, others will have zero opportunity to come into contact with the infected, and new infections will decrease dramatically. Then, once everyone who is infected at that point either fully recovers or dies, the Herzgenheim disease epidemic in the Archduchy of Arqvist will end... However, that is not absolute. If we cannot completely seal off the infection, this will be an act of merely discarding the infected and wasting magic medicine. Therefore, this is a gamble."
"...Selfers-sensei, what do you see as the probability of winning this gamble?"
"About sixty percent, I would say. There have been many examples in the past where similar moves were taken, but considering the literature, hearsay, and my own experiences, it is around that much. Ah, the citizens of the Archduchy of Arqvist have very high civic standards and follow Your Excellency's instructions well, so the success rate might be a bit higher."
Hearing this, Noein agonized while placing both clasped hands over their mouth.
In the current situation where they were at a dead end, if the infection could be brought to an early end with a success rate of over sixty percent, it could be said to be a good class of gamble.
However, if it failed, it would be miserable. In another month or two, they would be forced to loosen the restrictions to ease the people's sense of stagnation, and if that happened, the number of infected would certainly increase, but since there would be no more magic medicine, the mortality rate would rise exponentially. They would be struck by a disaster not much different from the various noble territories of the Kingdom of Roadberg.
That said, even if they continued the current system sluggishly, the result would likely not change much. It would only delay the collapse of society by a week or so at most.
They had no choice but to take this gamble. There was no room for selection.
"I understand, I will adopt your proposal, sensei... But if we take this means, isn't the one in the most danger you yourself, sensei?"
In his explanation, Selfers had said, "the doctors other than myself who are not yet infected will be forbidden from entering and leaving the clinic."
As expected, they could not leave the clinic without a single doctor, and if someone were to remain, it was reasonable that Selfers himself, the proposer and the person in charge, would remain. However, Selfers was an old man over a hundred years of age. Considering his physical strength, if he became infected, the risk of death was far higher than normal.
"With all due respect, Your Excellency. If by exposing yourself to a small amount of danger, you could save many of your subjects, would you refuse that choice by begrudging your own life?"
"No, I would take that choice without hesitation."
When Noein answered immediately, Selfers wore a satisfied smile.
"I am the same. From the day I became a doctor over seventy years ago, I have been prepared to dedicate this body to fulfill my mission as a doctor. And from the day I migrated to this land, I have been prepared to risk my life for the sake of this land."
In those quiet words and that calm expression, there was an unwavering strength.